Jim, I’m kind of in the ISW camp. Xi has corruption problems. You can read this several ways. One, that he is eliminating rivals. Or two, these guys are corrupt and worse, inefficient and even worse, causing Xi to lose face within the CCP. I know several of the CCP experts at ISW and they seem to believe that few know how the upper echelons of the CCP really works. Yes, it is very nuanced and very Oriental in that in every conversation there are two going on. One is the words that are being spoken and their meaning. Then, there is the other, that is more nuanced and could be the total opposite of what is being said, but more likely, in a different direction. The real/important conversation is the latter so unless one is in the room listening to the tone, tenor and words, it is hard to interpret the meaning. Problem two is that the CCP understands us better than we understand them. Everything that comes out is carefully contrived/constructed/controlled to send a specific message. Again, there are two. One are the words and the other is something different. Last point…. Xi is 72 and in a country where senior citizens are revered for their knowledge and wisdom, 72 is young. However, Xi has made some statements, i.e., that Taiwan will be returned to China in his lifetime…. Or words to that effect. The question is how since the majority of Taiwanese do not want to become citizens of the PRC just like the majority of those living in Hong Kong preferred to stay part of the British Commonwealth. Studying the PRC, one must realize the one thing that any CCP leader cannot do is put the hegemony/control by the CCP of the Chinese people at risk. That’s the fastest way to get ousted. So under Xi you have: 1. An economy in tatters. The PRC doesn’t have the legal/governmental mechanisms to deal effectively with recessions, insider trading, you name it. It’s hemorrhaging cash supporting businesses owned by the CCP that are unprofitable, make crappy goods that no one buys, yet provide jobs. The government keeps printing money and supporting these companies which leads to inflation…. Another issue the government is unequipped to stop other than by devaluing the yuan. 2. Widespread corruption and if the CCP benefits, it is sort of O.K., but if it creates unrest, that’s bad 3. An economy that is heavily dependent on exports. Trump’s tariffs hurt because they make goods from other nations competitive with those from the PRC. A drop in exports will cause unrest and horror of horrors, a lack of confidence in the CCP 4. The PRC says it is spending 2% on Defense. That’s BS. It is closer to 10 – 15%. Economic data coming from the PRC is so skewed that unless you have lots of other sources of accurate data, it is difficult to determine what is real and what is Memorex. There’s enough labor and material cost data to work backwards and get a directionally correct estimate of their defense spending. It’s beyond my purview, but I’ve done enough back of the napkin calculations to be convinced that their defense expenditures are way out of whack with what is sustainable 5. A realization that a trade war with the U.S. is unwinnable. And, a war with Taiwan will result in sanctions that will cripple the Chinese economy and more than likely cause it to collapse. Modern warfare, as Putin is finding out, is as much about economics as it is about weapons. Any war with the U.S. will immediately put the PRC in conflict with an economy that is at least 0% bigger and healthy, with Japan, the #4, Australia and South Korea, #13 and #14. This doesn’t include any European countries who will, with the possible exception of the French, at least help enforce economic sanctions that will cut the PRC off from the world’s financial markets and its growing (and restless) middle class from their money in western banks. Here’s a link to the list of the world economies by GDP. - https://www.worldometers.info/gdp/gdp-by-country/ Bottom line is that Xi has problems. Some of his own making, some are systemic and some are the usual suspects vying for power. How long will he remain Premier? Who knows? The one thing I am willing to bet is that he will not order an invasion of Taiwan unless he can coopt the current government with a coup. Marc Liebman https://www.marcliebman.com https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g From: James Lowder <lowderjf@gmail.com> Date: Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 1:28 PM To: Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com> Cc: None via Helobubbas <helobubbas@helobubbas.com> Subject: Re: [Helobubbas] Purges in the PLA Is Xi Jinping exercising his agency as the (only) kingpin, or is he the victim of a cabal of opponents led by Generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Yuan, supported timidly by Hu Jintao and a faction of Xi-appointed self-made technocrats who have been largely purged? In other words, is Xi the last man standing or a pet canary in a golden cage? China analysts do not seem to agree. Many of the more robustly anti-CCP crowd like "Lei" from Lei's Real Talk, the "Decodong China" and "China Uncensored" podcasts, and Gordon Chang, assert that the ZCCP is in chaos and that Xi is being undermined, steadily stripped of power and influence. and on the verge of ouster by the opposition. Mike Baker seems to lean in this direction in his President's Daily Briefing podcast. But much like Lucy withdrawing the ball from Charlie Brown at the last moment, most of these happy talk warriors have been predicting the CCP's ultimate demise for quite some time, with disappointing results. At least they are willing to explain their analyses and discuss some of the details regarding those who have been purged. China Analyst Steve Yates from Heritage makes the notable observation that all the top CCP leaders [except, perhaps, for the self-made technocrats] are subject to purge for corruption due the the criminal nature of the CCP "mafia-like" criminal enterprise, which requires a criminal act to "join the club," but Yates claims that he has seen no reason to conclude that Xi himself is in danger or being purged. On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal's LingLing Wei and Biden-era CIA analyst Jonathan Czin (now at Brookings), seem to support Xi's preferred narrative, that he remains in total control as the second coming of Mao. ISW appears to lean in this direction. They seem to credit Xi alone for the recent dramatic purges. For most of us, the inner workings of CCP politics remain a mystery, wrapped in a riddle, inside an enigma.*** Are we like the Cold War analysts who could not see the collapse of the Soviet Union until it actually happened? My observation is that Chinese CCP internal politics are even more nuanced, sophisticated, secretive and mysterious than those of the Soviets. *** Note: the "mystery-riddle-enigma" concept was used by Churchill to refer to WWII in a 1939 radio address. On Fri, Oct 24, 2025 at 4:38 PM Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com<mailto:marc@marcliebman.com>> wrote: https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-weekly-updat... This what analysts can glean and confirm. But how deep do they go? Marc Liebman https://www.marcliebman.com https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/ https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g Author of: Cherubs 2 Raider of the Scottish Coast Big Mother 40 Carronade Render Harmless Death of a Lady Forgotten Last Battles Inner Look For a Few Francs Moscow Airlift Predators The Simushir Island Incident Flight of the Pawnee Failure to Fire Insidious Dragon The Red Star of Death Member of: The Author’s Guild Military Writers Society of America Association of Texas Authors North American Snowsport Journalists Association -- _______________________________________________ Helobubbas mailing list -- helobubbas@helobubbas.com<mailto:helobubbas@helobubbas.com> To unsubscribe send an email to helobubbas-leave@helobubbas.com<mailto:helobubbas-leave@helobubbas.com> -- Best regards, Jim