Jim,
I’m kind of in the ISW camp. Xi has corruption problems. You can read this several ways. One, that he is eliminating rivals. Or two, these guys are corrupt and worse, inefficient and even worse,
causing Xi to lose face within the CCP.
I know several of the CCP experts at ISW and they seem to believe that few know how the upper echelons of the CCP really works. Yes, it is very nuanced and very Oriental in that in every conversation
there are two going on. One is the words that are being spoken and their meaning. Then, there is the other, that is more nuanced and could be the total opposite of what is being said, but more likely, in a different direction. The real/important conversation
is the latter so unless one is in the room listening to the tone, tenor and words, it is hard to interpret the meaning.
Problem two is that the CCP understands us better than we understand them. Everything that comes out is carefully contrived/constructed/controlled to send a specific message. Again, there are two.
One are the words and the other is something different.
Last point…. Xi is 72 and in a country where senior citizens are revered for their knowledge and wisdom, 72 is young. However, Xi has made some statements, i.e., that Taiwan will be returned to
China in his lifetime…. Or words to that effect. The question is how since the majority of Taiwanese do not want to become citizens of the PRC just like the majority of those living in Hong Kong preferred to stay part of the British Commonwealth.
Studying the PRC, one must realize the one thing that any CCP leader cannot do is put the hegemony/control by the CCP of the Chinese people at risk. That’s the fastest way to get ousted. So under
Xi you have:
Bottom line is that Xi has problems. Some of his own making, some are systemic and some are the usual suspects vying for power. How long will he remain Premier? Who knows? The one thing I am willing
to bet is that he will not order an invasion of Taiwan unless he can coopt the current government with a coup.
From:
James Lowder <lowderjf@gmail.com>
Date: Saturday, October 25, 2025 at 1:28 PM
To: Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com>
Cc: None via Helobubbas <helobubbas@helobubbas.com>
Subject: Re: [Helobubbas] Purges in the PLA
Is Xi Jinping exercising his agency as the (only) kingpin, or is he the victim of a cabal of opponents led by Generals Zhang Youxia and Liu Yuan, supported timidly by Hu Jintao and a faction of Xi-appointed self-made technocrats who have
been largely purged? In other words, is Xi the last man standing or a pet canary in a golden cage? China analysts do not seem to agree.
Many of the more robustly anti-CCP crowd like "Lei" from Lei's Real Talk, the "Decodong China" and "China Uncensored" podcasts, and Gordon Chang, assert that the ZCCP is in chaos and that Xi is being undermined, steadily stripped of power and influence. and
on the verge of ouster by the opposition. Mike Baker seems to lean in this direction in his President's Daily Briefing podcast. But much like Lucy withdrawing the ball from Charlie Brown at the last moment, most of these happy talk warriors have been predicting
the CCP's ultimate demise for quite some time, with disappointing results. At least they are willing to explain their analyses and discuss some of the details regarding those who have been purged. China Analyst Steve Yates from Heritage makes the notable observation
that all the top CCP leaders [except, perhaps, for the self-made technocrats] are subject to purge for corruption due the the criminal nature of the CCP "mafia-like" criminal enterprise, which requires a criminal act to "join the club," but Yates claims that
he has seen no reason to conclude that Xi himself is in danger or being purged.
On the other hand, the Wall Street Journal's LingLing Wei and Biden-era CIA analyst Jonathan Czin (now at Brookings), seem to support Xi's preferred narrative, that he remains in total control as the second coming of Mao. ISW appears to
lean in this direction. They seem to credit Xi alone for the recent dramatic purges.
For most of us, the inner workings of CCP politics remain a mystery, wrapped in a riddle, inside an enigma.*** Are we like the Cold War analysts who could not see the collapse of the Soviet Union until it actually happened? My observation
is that Chinese CCP internal politics are even more nuanced, sophisticated, secretive and mysterious than those of the Soviets.
*** Note: the "mystery-riddle-enigma" concept was used by Churchill to refer to WWII in a 1939 radio address.
On Fri, Oct 24, 2025 at 4:38 PM Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com> wrote:
https://understandingwar.org/research/china-taiwan/china-taiwan-weekly-update-october-24-2025/
This what analysts can glean and confirm. But how deep do they go?
Marc Liebman
https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g
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Best regards,
Jim