The politics of this are off the chart.

It could be, if true, an Article 5 incident
Turkey is the bastard of NATO. Erdogan held up Swedish entry into NATO because he wants into the EU but his economy and government doesn’t meet the standards. There are a lot of hard feelings about Erdogan and his opposition to Finland and then later, Sweden. Could NATO use Turkey’s desire, if there is one, as a way to drive changes in Turkey?
Turkey is a large customer of Russian oil. They have resisted changing suppliers despite offer from NATO nations (U.S., Canada, Norway, Netherlands, etc.) to meet their needs.
Turkey would like some of the turf they lost after WWI and WWII
Turkey may make claims against the Kurds. NATO wants an independent Kurdistan that already exists in Northern Iraq. Kurds are in Syria, Turkey, Iraq ,and Iran and control the large oil fields in Northern Iraq. Kurds want to have a country carved out of the areas where they live. Their neighbors don’t.

Marc Liebman

https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g

From: James Lowder <lowderjf@gmail.com>
Date: Tuesday, November 18, 2025 at 5:00 AM
To: Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com>, Helobubbas <helobubbas@helobubbas.com>, Lou Fifer <louisfifer@gmail.com>
Subject: Re: [Helobubbas] Attack on a Turkish Tanker in Ukraine

The Turks do not strike me as the type of "weak sisters" who would cower under such provocation.

On Mon, Nov 17, 2025 at 5:11 PM Marc Liebman <marc@marcliebman.com> wrote:

https://www.foxnews.com/world/russian-drone-strikes-tanker-ukraines-odesa-zelenskyy-closes-us-gas-deal

If true, and the tanker was Turkish owned and flagged, this could, but probably won’t, provoke a response from NATO. On the surface, it is an article 5 violation. So question 1, did Russia put out a NOTAM warning civilian ships not to enter Ukrainian waters.

Marc Liebman

https://www.marcliebman.com

https://www.facebook.com/marcliebmanauthor/

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC_sDoFQM5wupNaCeGIvKL1g

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Jim