One perspective on Middle Eastern geopolitics. Sent from my Galaxy
Qatar rides high͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ ͏ View in browserThe real winner of the Gaza warQatar rides highAndrew FoxOct 24∙Paid READ IN APP In spite of the Trump announcement, it seems fairly clear that the Gaza war is not over. The Trump ceasefire deal has merely paused it whilst it mutates into a different kind of geopolitical conflict.The nature of modern warfare often makes it challenging to declare victory or defeat. Take Israel: they have won every fight in Gaza, killed tens of thousands of Hamas members, and the wider 7 October War has left them militarily safer than they have been in decades. Yet, their international reputation is in tatters, they are diplomatically isolated, global support (including in the US Democrats) has disappeared, and Israel and Israelis can expect legal trouble wherever they go, in whatever form. Israelis on holiday will face malicious legal troubles, Israeli sports teams will face bans, and some Israeli politicians cannot travel freely abroad. It is a dire and dangerous situation.Hamas has taken a battering militarily, and their allies have forced them to give up the hostages. Yet, the Palestinian cause rides on a global high, Israel is a near-pariah, Hamas remain in power in the parts of Gaza abandoned by the IDF, and they have an opportunity to ensure they retain power and influence in Gaza in the future. They will see all of this as a success.Amid the smoke and rubble of Gaza, however, an unexpected victor emerged far from the battlefield: Qatar. While Israelis and Palestinians paid the war’s terrible costs, Qatar’s rulers have managed to convert chaos into opportunity, showcasing their strategic acumen and bolstering their influence and standing. It might seem counterintuitive. How could a tiny Gulf monarchy that openly bankrolls Hamas end up crowned as a peacemaker and power-broker? The answer lies in Qatar’s deft double game, leveraging hostage diplomacy, media influence, and Western alliances to turn the Gaza conflict to its advantage.When Hamas abducted scores of Israeli hostages, the hostage crisis would become Qatar’s golden ticket. For years, Hamas’s exiled leadership and their families have enjoyed a haven in Doha’s luxury hotels. Qatar also funnelled over a billion dollars into Gaza, ostensibly for aid, but effectively propping up Hamas’s rule. In other words, Hamas is more Qatar’s proxy than it is Iran’s. When Hamas took hostages, it was engaging in hostage diplomacy, a strategy where a state uses hostages as a means to achieve its political goals.Since the beginning of the war, many others and I (like the excellent Daniel Rubenstein) have often called for pressuring Qatar to compel Hamas to release innocent captives. Yet the United States chose not to squeeze Doha. Instead, Washington courted and rewarded Qatar, enlisting its help as an intermediary. Rather than strong-arming the Qataris, Trump effectively paid them in prestige and concessions for their cooperation.Behind the scenes, of course, Qatari influence on both sides of the fence made the deal possible: influence Doha had cultivated by bankrolling Hamas for over a decade, as well as through massive investments in Washington, including a new plane for Trump and many eye-watering property deals with key US officials. It was a classic case of the arsonist posing as the firefighter. Qatar’s clients lit the fire, and Qatar then showed up with a water hose, expecting gratitude. Indeed, Western leaders thanked Qatar profusely rather than condemning it. Doha successfully leveraged the suffering of hostages to elevate its diplomatic standing, gaining global recognition for its role. By positioning itself as the indispensable mediator between the USA, Israel and Hamas, Qatar gained a seat at every critical table. Any final settlement or Gaza ceasefire arrangement now had to go through the emirate.This strategy paid off spectacularly. Far from being isolated for supporting terrorism, Qatar was treated as a linchpin to peace. Its envoy’s phone number was on speed dial in Jerusalem, Washington, and European capitals. The hostages were held just long enough for Israel’s military response to inflame global opinion as part of the Muslim Brotherhood's long-game, grassroots approach to achieve their goals from the bottom up (see here). Then Qatar won massive concessions from Washington and nudged Hamas to release the hostages once they became a strategic liability. In doing so, Doha deftly divested from a toxic asset, handing over the hostages before they could become a burden, and still walked away crowned a hero.Qatar’s outsized victory in this war became evident in the dramatic Israeli airstrike on Doha. Early on, Israel grew frustrated that Hamas’s leaders sat safe in Qatar even as their fighters battled Israeli troops in Gaza. In a bold move, Israeli jets struck a target in Doha believed to house Hamas leaders. The strike failed to eliminate the Hamas brass, but it succeeded in giving Qatar an astonishing propaganda windfall. Qatari officials and state media, and the rest of the Arab states, reacted with theatrical outrage, furious that Israeli missiles violated their sovereignty. This incident allowed Qatar to portray itself as a victim of aggression, despite its enduring support for Hamas.The diplomatic fallout turned into a boon for Qatar. President Trump, keen to keep Qatar on board with his plan to end the war, pressed Israel to apologise. In an astonishing moment, Netanyahu publicly apologised to Qatar’s leadership and promised that Israel would never strike on Qatari soil again. For Israelis, seeing their leader bow his head to the emirate that shelters Hamas must have been galling and unprecedented (no matter how the pro-Netanyahu camp spins it. I do not buy the argument that this forced Qatar to the table: the huge concessions given to them by Trump suggest otherwise). For Qatar, it was a triumph of prestige. The tiny, immensely wealthy Gulf state forced one of the Middle East’s most powerful militaries to swear off touching it. Doha had flexed its muscle with Washington’s backing and won.By the war’s end, Qatar had not lost its role as mediator to any alternative (such as Egypt, which traditionally brokered Israel-Gaza truces). In fact, Doha managed to sideline Egypt and other moderates. Cairo had kept Hamas at arm’s length and coordinated closely with Israel on Gaza’s border security. Qatar’s embrace of Hamas, its open support and funding of the group, ultimately proved more useful to negotiators. Qatar’s overt and active support for Hamas was seen as a more effective strategy in influencing the conflict than Egypt’s approach. Qatar’s reward for backing Hamas was not censure, but a central position in shaping Gaza’s future. Truly, Qatar has collected the most significant prize from this bloody conflict without firing a shot.Qatar’s posture throughout the war was rife with contradictions. On one hand, it insisted it was merely a neutral facilitator and humanitarian donor. On the other hand, it has been Hamas’s banker and landlord for years. This duality has been the cornerstone of Doha’s foreign policy. Even as American warplanes fly out of Qatar’s Al-Udeid Air Base (the largest US base in the Middle East), Qatar has funnelled cash to militants that target American allies. Hamas is only one example. Qatar has long been accused of being a permissive financial hub for extremist and terrorist movements. Over the years, multiple Qatari citizens have been sanctioned by the US Treasury for financing Al-Qaeda affiliates in Iraq and Syria. Doha has hosted senior figures of the Taliban and, until recently, hosted notorious Islamist ideologue Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the Muslim Brotherhood’s spiritual leader, who sanctioned suicide bombings against Israelis on Qatari airwaves.These glaring hypocrisies have not gone unnoticed. Qatar’s Gulf neighbours see its behaviour as a dangerous double game. They remember that Qatar’s state-run Al Jazeera network cheered on the Arab Spring revolts and gave a platform to Muslim Brotherhood ideologues (of course, as well as their appalling role in driving global anti-Israel propaganda post-7 October). Saudi Arabia and the UAE have spent the past decade crushing Brotherhood-linked groups and moving toward peaceful ties with Israel; Qatar did the opposite by doubling down on Hamas and Islamist networks. The 2017 Gulf crisis was a direct result of these tensions. Though that Arab blockade was lifted in 2021, deep mistrust remains. Senior Saudi and UAE officials warned this past week that relying on Qatar to handle Gaza’s reconstruction is a grave mistake: Qatar backs the Muslim Brotherhood and will ensure Hamas remains in the picture. In their words, excessive Qatari involvement would undermine deradicalisation and cause any post-war plan to collapse. In other words, Riyadh fears (correctly) that Doha will protect Hamas rather than help eliminate its influence now that their ceasefire and hostage release prestige has been achieved.Western powers, caught up in ending the immediate war, have turned a blind eye to Qatar’s duplicity. Not once during the conflict did Washington or European leaders publicly threaten Qatar with any consequence for its patronage of Hamas. On the contrary, President Trump lavished praise on Qatar’s emir for being “fantastic” and supportive. Trump’s much-touted 20-point plan to end the war handed Qatar a broad mandate to participate in Gaza’s future, essentially forgiving all past sins.Doha’s ability to pull off this charade owes much to its carefully cultivated influence and soft power in Western capitals. I have written extensively about this here.By Phase 1 of the Trump ceasefire deal, Qatar had achieved a remarkable trifecta: it preserved its proxy, enhanced its international standing, and escaped any accountability. Doha is now slated to play a leading role in Gaza’s reconstruction, having eagerly volunteered to bankroll the rebuilding of schools, hospitals, and homes. At face value, this seems altruistic. In reality, it ensures Qatar’s hand remains entrenched in Gaza’s future, and by extension, that Hamas (or its ideological twins) can quietly regroup under the guise of “civil society” and relief efforts. Money is power, and as a significant donor with few strings attached, Qatar will wield enormous influence over which contractors get work, which local officials administer aid, and how Gaza’s economy is revived. It takes little imagination to guess that much of this largesse will flow to individuals and companies linked to Hamas. Rebuilding can easily become rehabilitating Hamas behind the scenes, in the manner I wrote about, here.This prospect rightly alarms other regional players. The Saudis and Egyptians, for instance, support channelling aid through the Palestinian Authority (PA) and insist on stripping Hamas of weapons and control, but Qatar’s involvement undermines that goal. Qatar’s interests will be to ensure Hamas remains in the picture and returns to power when the world’s (specifically, Trump’s) attention drifts away. If the internationally backed plan was to have the PA or an international trusteeship take charge of Gaza, Qatar’s actions could subvert it by empowering parallel structures loyal to Hamas. In essence, Doha might be paying for the phoenix of Hamas to rise from the ashes, securing a future role for the Islamist movement in Gaza under Qatar’s patronage.Diplomatically, Qatar’s gambit during the war has also paid off. The United States has doubled down on its partnership with Doha. In addition to its Major Non-NATO Ally status, hosting the US airbase, and receiving military flight training in the USA, Qatar received a defence pact and public accolades from President Trump and others for its “help” in ending the conflict. The White House pointed to Qatar as a key stakeholder for maintaining stability. In practice, this gives Qatar a veto over any future Gaza arrangements it dislikes. It is hard to imagine the US or Europe pushing through a plan over Qatari objections, given how much they now credit Doha for its mediation. Qatar has not only emerged unscathed from the war but has also gained leverage for the following chapters of Middle East diplomacy, from Palestinian politics to perhaps even talks involving other Islamist actors, where Qatar will claim a role as facilitator.Perhaps the most jarring aspect of this outcome is the complete lack of punishment for Qatar’s role in fomenting the very crisis it helped resolve. Doha’s patronage of Hamas in the form of financing and ideological support directly contributed to the war’s outbreak and intensity. For years, Qatar gave Hamas leaders a comfortable base from which to raise funds and plot strategy, even as that group prepared for war with Israel. Once war erupted, Doha did nothing to pressure Hamas to surrender or disarm; it only intervened to calibrate the conflict in ways beneficial to Hamas’s survival and to degrade Israel’s reputation internationally. By any measure of logic, Qatar should bear responsibility for enabling a terror organisation that brought havoc to the region. Yet instead of censure, Qatar earned kudos. Instead of sanctions or isolation, Qatar received an Israeli pledge that its skyline is off-limits to the IDF and a defence pact with Washington. Instead of being told to cut ties with Hamas, Qatar got a handshake and a seat at the head table of Gaza’s peace process.For now, Qatar relishes its new reputation as a kingmaker. The same emirate that owns London landmarks and elite football clubs also bankrolled rocket arsenals in Gaza – a reality the world presently seems prepared to ignore. If there is a lesson in this outcome, it is a sobering one: so long as we let duplicitous actors pose as partners in peace, they will walk away with the spoils. Qatar emerged from a war it had a hand in igniting, not as a pariah but as the indispensable fixer. In doing so, Doha has indeed become the biggest winner of the Gaza war and at minimal cost to itself.In the aftermath of this crisis, a reckoning is needed. Western governments and societies must recognise Qatar’s playbook for what it is. Transparency and stricter scrutiny should be applied to Qatar’s funding of our media, universities, and political institutions. The facade of Qatar as a benign, modernising emirate falls away when one sees the trail of empowered extremists and fractured allies it leaves behind. If we wish to prevent the next war and to ensure that we are not inadvertently cheering its instigators as peace-brokers, we must not let Qatar’s conduct go unchallenged. However, I suspect we will, and Qatar will remain untouchable. For now, Doha savours a strategic win. In the long game of Middle East power politics, Qatar bet on both sides of a brutal conflict and came out on top. The irony is as rich as Qatar’s gas fields, and just as hard to overlook.Fox On War is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.SubscribedInvite your friends and earn rewardsIf you enjoy Fox On War, share it with your friends and earn rewards when they subscribe.Invite Friends LikeCommentRestack © 2025 Andrew Fox548 Market Street PMB 72296, San Francisco, CA 94104 Unsubscribe
